Selecting explorers and junior miners

Searching for excellence

Precious metal explorers as investment vehicles have a long standing track record of extreme volatility. As Rick Rule of Sprot Asset Mgt. USA uses to formulate it: “We have known both the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat”.

Er roert wat bij de vastgoedcertificaten

BRECS index stabiliseert
Na een eerder zwakke periode eind 2011 en begin 2012, is de dalende tendens onderbroken. De BRECS returnindex heeft begin maart opnieuw postgevat boven 68000.

BRECS index  (blauw - linkerschaal) en couponrendement (rood - rechterschaal)

Het gewogen gemiddelde couponrendement bedraagt momenteel 6.31%.

Over de top

De vastgoedcertificaten hebben lang de zwaartekracht getrotseerd en hebben na een indrukwekkende koersrally de Bel20 return aandelenindex ver achter zich gelaten. Eind vorig jaar had ik het er al over dat de BRECS returnindex een stap terug zette. Woluwe Shopping (€1616), een zwaargewicht in de BRECS index, moest na een rally tot een exhuberant koersniveau tenslotte toch stoom afblazen.

Crédit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012

The "Crédit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012" was released last week, which deserves a rapid posting. The yearbook highlights three subjects:

The real value of money
Whoever is determined in thinking a research paper endorsed by a major financial institution can only by a Siren song supporting fiat currency, may need to reconsider.

Just a quote from the introduction:

With international efforts to avert recession, fears have grown about the monetary policy and debt overhang. Sentiment fluctuates between deflationary concerns and inflationary fears and the demand for safe-haven assets has surged. This article examines the dynamics and impact of inflation and examines how equities and bonds have performed under different inflationary conditions.

Currency matters

Investing in global equity rather than just domestically reduces portfolio volatility. Equities tend to outperform following periods of currency weakness, which suggests that more unhedged cross border exposure can be desirable at those times. Contrary to equity, cross border bond investment can add to portfolio risk primarily through currency exposure.

Measuring Risk Appetite

... attitudes towards risk oscillate periodically from over-exhuberance to excessive pessimism and back again. In Feb 1998, Crédit Suisse lauched the Global Risk Appetite Index ...

The MVGDXJ Junior gold mining index

Close to a year ago, I first pointed to this junior mining index used as a benchmark for Van Eck’s GDXJ junior mining ETF. See : A junior gold mining index. Back then, the index was managed by the German firm “4asset-management”. Recently Van Eck took over the index calculation. Its composition and time series are now revealed on Van Eck’s website… for those to whom an access is granted. Whereas initially the access policy seemed rather liberal, now it has become restricted to ‘finance professionals’ (which doesn’t include me as a blogger.) The present posting is therefore the final one on this topic.

Miners' performance relative to precious metals

Abstract
The focus of this article is on the gold and silver miners from a tactical point of view: how do PM miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver. Data used are 2012 Jan 10.
Special attention is paid to the miners covered by the database 'Canadian gold and silver mining', for which a capital weighted index of gold- and silver miners is calculated. Aggregated performance is one thing, it's also very illustrative that miner and explorer performance has been diverging from outperforming the metals by a wide margin to losing ground completely.

Silvermex / Genco

Silvermex Resources Inc. is an emerging silver producer focused on building a profitable, sustainable silver mining company. The Company is led by a highly experienced and successful team, comprised of top executives from leading corporations in the silver mining sector.

Silvermex's core asset is the producing La Guitarra silver-gold property located in the Temascaltepec Mining District of Mexico. Our technical team is currently implementing efficiencies and developing plans to ensure continued production growth throughout the district. The Company's other area of focus is the recently consolidated Rosario/San Marcial Mining Camp in south eastern Sinaloa, Mexico. The Rosario/San Marcial mining concession consists of two past producing mines, resources and historic reserves as well as extensive production related infrastructure already in place.

FIRST MAJESTIC IS ACQUIRING SILVERMEX; THERE WILL BE NO FURTHER UPDATES OF THIS BLOGPAGE.

Website : http://www.silvermexresources.com/s/Home.asp

Northern Dynasty Minerals

Website: www.northerndynastyminerals.com/

Resource
Since acquiring the Pebble Project in 2001, Northern Dynasty has delineated and advanced one of the world's greatest stores of mineral wealth.

Located on American soil in southwest Alaska, the Pebble deposit is remarkable for both its size and composition. Current resource estimate includes 5.94 billion tonnes in the measured and indicated category containing 55 billion lb copper, 66.9 million oz gold and 3.3 billion lb molybdenum; and 4.84 billion tonnes in the inferred category, containing 25.6 billion lb copper, 40.4 million oz gold and 2.3 billion lb molybdenum. Quantities of silver, palladium and rhenium also occur in the deposit.

In 2007, a wholly-owned affiliate of Northern Dynasty entered a 50:50 partnership with a wholly-owned subsidiary of Anglo American plc to permit, construct and operate a modern, long-life mine at Pebble. Based on Anglo American's staged investment of $1.425 to $1.5 billion, both companies share equal ownership, board representation and rights in the Alaska-based Pebble Limited Partnership.

On Sept 16, 2013, Anglo American withdrew from the Pebble Limited Partnership (read:
http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=62679764&qm_symbol=NDM) Though this returns 100% ownership to Northern Dynasty, it also implies that Anglo American no longer considers the Pebble deposit to be a viable project or that the company grew wary by the environmental opposition against it.

Ticker: NDM on TSX and NAK on Amex
Daily Finance: Key statistics for NAK.

Belgische monoholdings

U leest een artikel van 2011.  Een meer recente blogpost over hetzelfde onderwerp is: Strategische keuze voor monoholdings (oktober 2015).

Monoholdings zijn moederbedrijven boven grote beursgenoteerde bedrijven die als nagenoeg enig actief een aanzienlijk aandelenpakket hebben in het beursgenoteerde bedrijf.

We tellen nog drie monoholdings genoteerd op Euronext Brussel. (Vroeger waren er wel meer.)

·    Financière de Tubize :  http://www.financiere-tubize.be/fr/cp-gen.html, monoholding boven UCB

·    KBC Ancora :             http://www.kbcancora.be, monoholding boven KBC,

·    Solvac :       &nbsp http://www.solvac.be/HPBis/0,,35841-3-0,00.html, monoholding boven Solvay.

De monoholdings hebben met mekaar gemeen dat ze, naast een aandelenpakket in het beursgenoteerde dochterbedrijf, ook een bankschuld hebben aangegaan om dit aandelenpakket te financieren. Per ‘aandeelequivalent’ van het dochterbedrijf, noteert de monoholding daardoor lager, waardoor er een bepaalde hefboomwerking ontstaat.

Raken vastgoedcertificaten buiten adem ?

Benchmark
Enige maanden geleden heb ik voor het eerst de vergelijking gemaakt tussen de BEL20 netto return index en de Petercam BRECS index van de vastgoedcertificaten. Deze laatste is eveneens een return index, wat voor rendementswaarden aangewezen is.
In onderstaande grafiek vindt U een tot 1 december bijgewerkte versie van deze benchmark:

Bel20 netto return versus BRECS, met waarde eind 2009 = index 100% - klikken om te vergroten

De Petercam BRECS index wordt wekelijks berekend. Voor de BEL-20 Netto return zijn er continue observaties, waarbij de slotkoers van de dag werd gebruikt voor deze reeks. De waarde op 31 december 2009 wordt voor beiden gelijkgesteld met een index 100%.