Oversold miners; Lagging gold

The yellow metal peaked in August 2020 at an all time high, with miners following in the slip stream. While little over one year later, gold is less than 15% off its peak, miners are oversold and lagging gold.

Gold miners regain their regression trend line

Since the summer of 2018, the HUI gold miners index has been following a regression trend line relative to gold. The emerging trend was first described in September 2019 and confirmed last year.

Streamers are the backbone of a miner portfolio

Seasoned investors in mining stocks have seen all of what a commodity cycle brings: fortune but above all hardship. Mining is a 'wasting asset' and anyone expecting 'leverage' on precious metal prices must have realized that such is not uncommon on any upswing of metal prices, but rather general on any decline.

New linear regression between the HUI miners index and the Gold Price

Price trends of individual miners are correlated with the gold price. On an aggregated level, a linear regression between the HUI gold miners index and gold may for hold several years. Presently, an emerging linear regression is revealed, fundamentally different from what was observed before.

HUI to Gold Regression: the 2008-10 recovery

What happened to stocks during the 2008 financial crisis needs little explanation. Whereas the broad stock market kept meandering along the lows till March 2009, gold recovered very quickly.
US Government bailouts such as TARP (Troubled Assets Relieve Program) abruptly doubled the money supply. The FED medicine to ease the pain in the broad economy undermined faith in the dollar and raised fear for an escalating inflation.

HUI to Gold regression revisited

During the gold rally which took us from below $280/Oz by end 2001 to $1000 in March 2008, we were repeatedly told that the HUI miners index fluctuated around half of the price of gold (in USD). It was a trading rule which wasn't really questioned in depth and it seemed to hold for several years.

Gold Miner Pulse 2019 (half-year update)

The focus of this blog article is on the gold and silver miners from a tactical point of view: how do PM miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver.

Miners will continue to disappoint

Last Friday we witnessed a magnificent miner rally as gold broke above $1300 for the first time since mid June 2018.  However, miners have been disappointing for most of the past 18 months. There is no obvious reason why this dire situation would suddenly improve. 

Linear Regression between the Gold Price and the HUI miners index

As gold has broken above its $1300 resistance, enthusiasm for the miners is still at the back-burner. We are miles away from the collective euphoria witnessed only little over a year ago.

Graphs were updated on Oct 10, 2017.

Regression between the HUI miners index and the Gold Price

The miners rally since end January 2016 has been almost miraculous, with the HUI index more than doubling over less than six months. Since mid August however, much of the gains have evaporated. That doesn't come as a surprise because gold is back down to around $1260, from its 'lofty high' over $1360/oz both in the second week of July and early August.
Graphs were updated on April 25, 2017.

Gold relative to the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Miners index

The past cyclical gold bear market has been both lengthy and severe for the precious metals, but for precious metal miners it has been detrimental. 'How devastating the gold and silver miner bear market has been' is well illustrated when plotting a miners index together with gold on a comparable scale.

Gold miner rally: Bull market logic

Wild gyrations

Ever since bottoming barely above 100 on Jan 19, 2016, the HUI gold miners index more than doubled.  It closed at 226,1 on Friday May 6, up 125% from its trough or 103% year-to-date.  However, after peaking at 233.5 by the Apr 29 close, we witnessed a week with wild gyrations, starting with a three days losing streak culminating in the 10.25% landslide loss on Wednesday May 4.  Much overdone so it seems, since the Thursday recovery rally was in fact anticipating precious metals eventually firming on Friday May 6.