Saturday, 31 December 2016

Precious metal miners relative to metal prices

Precious metal prices determine the revenue of gold or silver mining companies. Their mining costs may vary widely and moreover are subject to fluctuations of foreign exchange rates.  Yet it still makes sense to compare miners relative to the metals.

Thursday, 17 November 2016

Regression between the HUI miners index and the Gold Price

The miners rally since end January has been almost miraculous, with the HUI index more than doubling over less than six months. Since mid August however, much of the gains have evaporated. That doesn't come as a surprise because gold is back down to around $1260, from its 'lofty high' over $1360/oz both in the second week of July and early August.
Graphs were updated on April 25, 2017.

Friday, 21 October 2016

Silver Miner ETF's - A Benchmark

Silver miners are barely significant when compared to the gold mining sector, Despite doubling, gold miners remain but a niche market. With two Silver Miner ETF's this tiny sector is very well covered.

Monday, 12 September 2016

Designed to outperform

A benchmark among Large Cap Gold Miner ETFs

The first severe correction since the onset of the gold miner recovery that started late January raised doubt and fear among investors. Not surprisingly miners gave way much more than did precious metals. As a result miners slid from overvalued relative to where gold was a month ago to undervalued at present.

Saturday, 6 August 2016

Gold miner impulse phase

Over half a year has lapsed since Gold and Silver miners bottomed on Jan 19. Time to make an evaluation of the first half year of a rejuvenated precious metals bull market and the impulse phase on precious metal miners.

Tuesday, 12 July 2016

The rising tide lifting all boats (?)

"A bull market in mining stocks is beneficial to all of them" is what is depicted by this blog title. Is it really true? Or more precisely to what extent it is true?

Friday, 24 June 2016

The not so 'United' Kingdom

The not so 'United Kingdom' as revealed by the geographic breakdown of the Leave/Remain published in following BBC article (Link in title)

Thursday, 9 June 2016

Gold relative to the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Miners index

The past cyclical gold bear market has been both lengthy and severe for the precious metals, but for precious metal miners it has been detrimental. 'How devastating the gold and silver miner bear market has been' is well illustrated when plotting a miners index together with gold on a comparable scale.

Tuesday, 24 May 2016

Oban Mining to become Osisko 2.0

Anyone familiar to the gold mining business knows about the acquisition of mid-tier producer Osisko Mining by Agnico Eagle and Yamana Gold. Excess working capital of Osisko was pooled in a new gold streamer named Osisko Royalties.

Monday, 9 May 2016

Gold miner rally: Bull market logic

Wild gyrations

Ever since bottoming barely above 100 on Jan 19, 2016, the HUI gold miners index more than doubled.  It closed at 226,1 on Friday May 6, up 125% from its trough or 103% year-to-date.  However, after peaking at 233.5 by the Apr 29 close, we witnessed a week with wild gyrations, starting with a three days losing streak culminating in the 10.25% landslide loss on Wednesday May 4.  Much overdone so it seems, since the Thursday recovery rally was in fact anticipating precious metals eventually firming on Friday May 6.

Wednesday, 27 April 2016

Worldwide mine production of gold and silver

A commonly stated explanation for low (or high) precious metal prices is that "low prices are the cure for low prices". The underlying rationale is that low prices impose marginal mine production to close down thereby diminishing global output.  High prices would then allow mining companies to ramp up production by bringing on line mines and ore layers that were not profitable at the much lower precious metal prices.  These are simplifications, tending to overlook the essential.

Friday, 11 March 2016

Platinum, Palladium and Silver relative to Gold.

The rejuvenated gold recovery quickly wipes all past hardship from our collective memories. Yet the yellow metal only bottomed on Dec 3, 2015. The 'white precious metals' continued weakening unabated thereafter until somewhen in January 2016.

Thursday, 25 February 2016

Canadian gold and silver miner performance: an update

Back in November 2010 as I started monitoring the Canadian gold and silver miner performance, I used the mining stocks covered by the GoldMinerPulse database. This source contains resource and reserve information on nearly 100 gold or silver miners, explorers and developers. It has become subscription based from this year onward: as such our 'miner universe' will gradually diverge.

Sunday, 3 January 2016

Gold miner bear market starting its fifth year

As we start a new year, it's time to make an update on the situation of gold and silver miners, using the approach you also find in the 'gold miner pulse' blog page and/or the miner performance page. Those pages have been updated with fresh information as of Dec 31st, 2015.
Several more detailed articles, using a similar approach, have been published (a good read for the more long term perspective):
  1. Miners relative to precious metals: a tactical approach; (July 2, 2012)
  2. Miners relative to precious metals: An update on 2012 (Jan 13, 2013)
  3. Anatomy of a gold miner bear market (Dec 30, 2013)
  4. Three year slide of precious metal miners (Dec 31, 2014)
During 2011-13 and even over the long haul, the relative performance of mining majors to the precious metals they produce had been disappointing for major gold miners, even while the metals were in a solid uptrend.  See: Gold miners: three decades for naught or Decades of underperformance

This blog article has a time perspective covering years or decades, but is also monitoring whether the trends observed are persisting.