Gold and silver price consolidation

... and how it gears miners

Last post has been focussing on the price consolidation of gold. Only few quotes below $4000/Oz seemed to indicate a bottom, while $4400 seemed to be a solid ceiling.

Gold and mining price consolidation

Are precious metals and miners on a protracted slide and was the January peak a rosy dream ending in a rude awakening? Or was this rude awakening the inevitable consequence of a speculative bubble leading to a parabolic price rise?

Valuation trend of gold mining equity relative to gold

This subject has been treated in depth on multiple occasions on this blog channel. The current article is merely an extension illustrating the trend over the last 12 months.

Gold and miners throughout this wartime turmoil

The yellow metal heated up as the drums of war were pounding, only to start selling off after it became clear a few bombs were not making Iran surrender. It's a sad story that so many lives were sacrificed, for another potential threat blown out of proportion. Starting a war is easier than ending one...

Where will the gold correction bring us?

Where will the gold correction bring us? ... and which signals are miners and stock markets giving?

Miners are getting traction

Even after the start of the gold rally in the spring of 2024, miners response has been lackluster. Miners only started to get traction well into 2025 after the yellow metal had breached the $3000 ceiling.

Miners once more started lagging before gold peaked

Miners once more started lagging before gold peaked? You read it right ! They did. With the benefit of quantitative analysis: the linear correlation between the HUI miners index and the gold price this bold statement is corroborated.

Mixed blessings of political turmoil and warfare

The highest NYMEX closing price of Gold has been $2,786.9 on Oct 30. Escalations of the war in the Ukraine and of Israel on two fronts against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have been and still are the main drivers of rising gold prices.

Long term performance of precious metal miners.

Poor long term performance of most precious metal miners causes the HUI index of unhedged miners and the Philadelphia Gold and Silver miners index (XAU) to lag both precious metals and the general stock market.

Are miners locking in a linear regression to the gold price?

A nascent regression between gold miners (using the HUI index of unhedged gold miners) and the yellow metal may finally interrupt the unabated miner slide relative to gold.

Gold is ending 2022 flat, but miners slide

Eventually Gold is ending 2022 nearly flat (-0.3%) but miners still give way. The HUI gold miners index of US quoted unhedged miners is losing 11.25% over 2022.

Worst quarter since 2013-Q2 is ending with a recovery rally

Precious metals have been weakening all summer and the slide aggravated in September. We probably have seen the bottom on Monday. The last week of September, precious metals have been recovering.

Miner crash perpetuated

Never an autumn precious metals and miner rally has been more improbable than in 2022. The July miners crash was only the first stage. The month ended with miners barely following the gold recovery lasting till August 12. The sentiment for precious metals turned sour again, especially last few days as PR's from Jackson Hole don't reveal any softening of the pace of FED rate increases. Those seem now echoed by a similar, though much delayed, stance taken by the ECB.

The July Miner crash

 International tension culminating in the outbreak of the Ukraine war, caused precious metals to spike by end February and the beginning of March. The hesitant first rate FED hike didn't really alter the outlook for the yellow metal. With the benefit of hindsight this was a peak level, hence an ideal exit moment.

Miners index (HUI) to gold regression impaired.

The linear regression between the HUI miners index and the gold price which was valid since Aug 2018, has come under severe strain since last summer. Permanently negative residuals are a clear statistical indication that the linear relationship is seriously impaired.

Oversold miners; Lagging gold

The yellow metal peaked in August 2020 at an all time high, with miners following in the slip stream. While little over one year later, gold is less than 15% off its peak, miners are oversold and lagging gold.

Gold miners regain their regression trend line

Since the summer of 2018, the HUI gold miners index has been following a regression trend line relative to gold. The emerging trend was first described in September 2019 and confirmed last year.

Annus horribilis leaves gold investors wealthier

My best wishes for 2021, a year when the situation only can improve.

As 2020 started there was no indication yet that the corona virus having surged in a Chinese city would turn into a world pandemic. After all there had been several similar outbreaks that never spread over a wide area. Since "this time it's different" is the most often heard false prayer, early warnings were met with disbelief. It would take till late February until it became obvious that northern Italy suffered a new outbreak with the nearby ski resorts turning into a vector for contagion for most of Europe. International tourism was to propagate the virus worldwide from March onward.

Revival of gold mines - Corona dip overcome

Gold mining investors were shaken as stock markets tanked and subsequently precious metals dipped at the outbreak of the Corona pandemic: miners suffered a double whammy. The recovery last two months has been vigorous, with tailwinds from both a gold price rally and the (FED) liquidity driven selective stock market recovery.

Gold Miner Pulse - Friday March 13

With graphs last updated on Mar 13, 2019

The focus of this blog page is on the gold and silver miners from a tactical point of view: how do PM miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver. 

I like to 'isolate' this version from the thread of weekly updated blog pages. The abrupt reversion of the gold bull trend and the implosion of all 'white precious metals' indeed is a sudden discontinuity deserving its place in history.

Whereas on Friday, stock markets enjoyed a bear market rally after the corona virus frenzy caused a worldwide slide, precious metals continued their downward spiral. Miners were slaughtered. Not only they had been retreating with common stocks while precious metals upheld or even advanced, now miners again leverage down the precious metals decline. From 52 weeks high to fresh 52 weeks low in little over a fortnight.