With graphs last updated on March 28, 2025
Scope: This extended blog page is monitoring whether trends are persisting and/or how they are evolving. Therefore the graphs posted here are showing both daily observations with a 12 months time horizon and some graphs with a 3 to 4 year time horizon. There is also a historic overview including sectioned graphs since Nov 2010. For the very long term reference frame, see the articles referenced at the bottom.
Unhedged Gold miners relative to Gold bullion
Where are we today?
Where are we today?
(relative to the Mar 2020 trough and the 2020-24 highs)
Last | Up-Min | Min | Max | Down Max | Relative Strength | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gold | 3084.7 | 109.1% | 1471.4 | 3084.7 | -0.0% | 100% | On date |
HUI | 359.3 | 119.5% | 163.7 | 363.9 | -1.3% | 98% | Mar 28, 2025 |
HUI/Gold graph
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| HUI Gold Miners index relative to the Gold Price in USD. Daily observations over 52 weeks from April 2024 to March 2025 |
Despite wild swings the HUI/Gold ratio is almost unchanged over 12 months. It is interesting to see that the volatile component are miners, rather than the gold price:
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| Gold Spot Price in USD (NYMEX at close) Daily observations over 52 weeks from April 2024 to March 2025 |
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| HUI Gold Miners index at close. Daily observations over 52 weeks from April 2024 to March 2025 |
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) relative to silver bullion
SIL/Silver graph
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Canadian Gold and Silver Mining indices
How gold miners are performing is shown by the capitalization weighed gold miners index of stocks included in the Gold Miner Pulse database (yellow diamond symbols). Note that most quotes are in CAD, which has been fluctuating to the USD. The blue graph shows the GMP silver miners index. The long term depreciation of the loonie mitigated the miner loss during gold miner bear market.The silver mining index was the first to break above parity, despite silver about flat from where it started over 10 years before.
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| GMP list based (and capitalization weighed) gold (black dots), silver (blue) and equal weight (red) miners indices. Reference 1000 on Nov 19, 2010 (click to enlarge) |
Note that the index calculation always is compensated for composition changes.
How we got so deep into trouble is best illustrated when showing a long term graph (2010-17) of those capitalization weighted miners indices. The revival after late Jan 2016 healed the last leg down of the miner bear market. We briefly topped the May 2013-Oct 2014 trading range.
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| Long term graph of the GMP list based (and capitalisation weighed) gold (black), silver (blue) and equal weight (red) miners indices. Reference 1000 on Nov 19, 2010. - Data till Dec 29, 2017 (click to enlarge) |
The silver miners index rose till 1400 in April 2011, peaking three weeks earlier than did the silver price. The silver miners index also posted a higher maximum during both the March 2014 and June to early August recovery than it did in the August 2013 recovery. The gold miners index and the equal weight index did not peak higher at any of the failing 2014-15 recoveries than they did in August 2013. By January 2016 silver miners nearly completely lost their edge relative to gold miners, yet the recovery proved more vigorous.
The continuation of the long term graph below covers 5 years: from 2017 (after the end of the 2016 boom-bust) over the tedious months early 2018, with miners unable to match gold strengthening. Miner quotes were jittery after gold repeatedly dipped below $1200.
Towards end 2018 gold strengthened to $1280 with miners recovering timidly. As gold broke above its trading range late spring 2019, miners started rallying. The 2016 miners boom euphoria didn't however repeat.
The 2020 miners surge was driven by a substantial rise of precious metals with gold setting a new ATH above $2060 in August.
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| Continuation of the long term graph from 2017 till the end of 2021. |
Mid term graph:
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| Mid term graph of the GMP list based indexes from Jan 2021 till end Dec 2023 |
In 2022 and 2023 gold miners indexes stay above their pre COVID levels, though metal prices had risen substantially since 2019. This has translated into much lover relative valuations. The equal weight index progressed more, reflecting the outperformance of some juniors and the take-over of some junior and mid-tier miners. Silver miners also did better despite the metal not convincing but still up from the $18 where we started in Jan 2020.
The year 2024 was a game changer, with gold last dipping below $2000/Oz by mid February. Miners were eventually getting traction, but substantially weakened towards the end of 2024 upon any minor hesitation in the gold rally. Precious metals reacted adversely upon the republican victory in the US presidentials. The policy of D. Trump after inauguration on Jan 20, 2025 disappointed stock markets and revigorated the gold rally. Miners manage to follow gold.
Performance graph
The performance disparity among the gold and silver miners of the GMP database is striking. Several laggards seem moribund. The median (or middle) miner (with an equal number better and worse) is still losing 12.2%. However, the average stands at a 82.2% gain. The performance distribution is slanted towards the high gains.
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| GMP Miners sorted by loss to gain since inception on Nov 19, 2010. Note that the top miners are left out to avoid excessive scale expansion Click to enlarge |
There are 13 miners/explorers losing 90% or more, with 8 thereof down over 95%. At the opposite side 44 miners are quoting above their Nov 2010 mark, led by Lundi Mining; 25 stocks have doubled. Most elite miners are omitted in the above graph to avoid excessive scale expansion, but you find those in full detail below:
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| GMP elite miners, sorted by gain since starting observations in Nov 2010 Logarithmic view with ticks 100% apart. These miners have more than doubled; click to enlarge |
A more detailed analysis including list composition changes, is found on the page "miners performance". The miners included in the database are classified in five performance quintiles. This allows evaluating how individual miners went with the herd or against the grid.
The contributor driven explorer and (junior) mining spreadsheet
Pooling efforts with any cooperative peers out there, I started the “contributor driven explorer and junior mining spreadsheet” end 2011. The idea is to get a selection of explorers, junior or mid-tier producers of gold and/or silver. This spreadsheet is updated weekly. Sector benchmarks (ETF's) were added since the very start.
Related blog articles
Several more detailed articles focusing on the longer term have been published. These are using the same approach as this blog page and still are a good read to grasp the historic perspective:- Miners relative to precious metals: a tactical approach; (July 2, 2012)
- Miners relative to precious metals: An update on 2012; (Jan 13, 2013)
- Anatomy of a gold miner bear market (Dec 30, 2013)
- Three year slide of precious metal miners (Dec 31, 2014)
- Gold miner bear market starting its fifth year (Jan 3, 2016)
- Precious metal miners relative to metal prices (Dec 31, 2016)
- Precious metal mining in 2018: a dark cloud with a silver lining and 2019 outlook (29 Dec 2018)
- Gold Miner Pulse 2019 (half-year update) (Jul 1, 2019)
- Precious metal and miner 2019 overview and outlook for 2020. (Dec 31, 2019)
- Gold Miner Pulse - Friday March 13 (Mar 13, 2020)
- Gold Miner Pulse - October 2020 update (Oct 10, 2020)
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