When precious metals rise for the wrong reason ...

Halloween is a moment to look back at the month of October ending. Gold plunged into October, putting down a bottom at $1820.2/oz on 5 Oct. The cruel invasion of Hamas terrorists into Israel on Sat. Oct 7 sparked the reversal. The yellow metal gained $100/Oz during the following week. On Friday 27 Oct gold once more broke above the psychologic $2000/oz.

Miners recovering

The HUI Gold Miners index has dipped several times over the last two months. The recovery after the last dip on Nov 3 proved to be sustainable.

Gold miner pulse - October 2020 update

Happy Thanksgiving to all Canadians

Graphs last updated on Oct 9, 2020

The main content of this article also is found on the regular weekly updated blog page: Gold miner Pulse. Its focus still is a tactical approach on how gold and silver miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver.

Miners (HUI) to gold linear regression still intact

 A year ago the new linear regression between major gold miners (represented by the HUI gold miners index) and the gold price has been revealed. With the yellow metal now way above the interval used to derive the regression relationship, it has been verified that the linear regression still holds.

Revival of gold mines - Corona dip overcome

Gold mining investors were shaken as stock markets tanked and subsequently precious metals dipped at the outbreak of the Corona pandemic: miners suffered a double whammy. The recovery last two months has been vigorous, with tailwinds from both a gold price rally and the (FED) liquidity driven selective stock market recovery.

Precious metal and miner 2019 overview and outlook for 2020

Best wishes for 2020

This blog article is monitoring the trends over a 6 and over a 12 months time horizon. Therefore the graphs posted here are showing daily observations year-to-date. For the very long term reference frame, see the articles referenced at the bottom.

New linear regression between the HUI miners index and the Gold Price

Price trends of individual miners are correlated with the gold price. On an aggregated level, a linear regression between the HUI gold miners index and gold may for hold several years. Presently, an emerging linear regression is revealed, fundamentally different from what was observed before.

HUI to Gold Regression: the 2008-10 recovery

What happened to stocks during the 2008 financial crisis needs little explanation. Whereas the broad stock market kept meandering along the lows till March 2009, gold recovered very quickly.
US Government bailouts such as TARP (Troubled Assets Relieve Program) abruptly doubled the money supply. The FED medicine to ease the pain in the broad economy undermined faith in the dollar and raised fear for an escalating inflation.

Gold Miner Pulse 2019 (half-year update)

The focus of this blog article is on the gold and silver miners from a tactical point of view: how do PM miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver.

Miners disappointing

Miners continue plunging on any precious metal retreat and follow almost reluctantly while gold and silver are recovering. Expectations have aligned with experience until this infernal dynamic got deeply encrusted in the investor mindset.

The HUI/Gold ratio: what's left in Pandora's box?

With the yellow metal stubbornly quoting below $1200/Oz, miners suffered badly. The HUI index is closing 2018 Q3 at 141.1. Earlier, n September 10, the HUI closed at a low of 134. We need to look back to early Feb 2016 to find a lower close.

Recovery rally doesn't cure the disease

Mid August, the HUI miner index plunged to 139: beneath both the Dec 12, 2017 bottom (175) and the Dec 15, 2016 bottom at 163.5. After Friday's rally HUI now posts at 146.8, which still is well below said bottoms. The recovery rally merely alleviates the pain but it doesn't cure the disease.

What may spark the next miner rally?

Miners lagging the metals has been an understatement.
Even during last week, with gold up over 2.5% on balance, closing at $1346.8 the miner response was quite meek.  The HUI gold miners index added 3.33%; admittedly more, yet little convincing.

Gold miners persistently lagging the metal

The latest downturn of gold brought the yellow metal to a Friday close of $1315.7, easing barely 1.22% over the week and still holding on to a tiny advance year-to-date.
However the HUI plunged 7.17% leveraging gold down sixfold. While miners had been persistently lagging the metals throughout 2017, their decline currently is aggravating.

Pre-positioning for a January rally

For the seventh consecutive year, there has been no autumn precious metals rally. About the best we got were some strong September months, after which a new slide was taking grip, occasionally interrupted by a half hearted recovery attempt.

Linear Regression between the Gold Price and the HUI miners index

As gold has broken above its $1300 resistance, enthusiasm for the miners is still at the back-burner. We are miles away from the collective euphoria witnessed only little over a year ago.

Graphs were updated on Oct 10, 2017.

Canadian Miners Performance Update

With the yellow metal well above $1250, miners have rallied from their correction bottom reached mid December 2016.  On April 12, the HUI index is up 33% from this mid December bottom, yet from its bear market bottom that adds up to a more impressive 115%.  However, from its August rally top the HUI still is down 25%.  Following tables shed light on how the individual explorer, developer and mining stocks performed during these hectic days.

Precious metal miners relative to metal prices

Precious metal prices determine the revenue of gold or silver mining companies. Their mining costs may vary widely and moreover are subject to fluctuations of foreign exchange rates.  Yet it still makes sense to compare miners relative to the metals.

Regression between the HUI miners index and the Gold Price

The miners rally since end January 2016 has been almost miraculous, with the HUI index more than doubling over less than six months. Since mid August however, much of the gains have evaporated. That doesn't come as a surprise because gold is back down to around $1260, from its 'lofty high' over $1360/oz both in the second week of July and early August.
Graphs were updated on April 25, 2017.

Canadian gold and silver miner performance: an update

Back in November 2010 as I started monitoring the Canadian gold and silver miner performance, I used the mining stocks covered by the GoldMinerPulse database. This source contains resource and reserve information on nearly 100 gold or silver miners, explorers and developers. It has become subscription based from this year onward: as such our 'miner universe' will gradually diverge.