Beaulieulaan

Het vastgoedcertificaat Beaulieulaan betaalt op 31 juli zijn jaarlijkse coupon uit. Het brutobedrag stijgt €0.2824 tot €14.6152 maar door de gestegen roerende voorheffing daalt de netto-coupon €0.251 tot €12.8965. Van het brutobedrag is er een kapitaalsdelging van €6.4309 die vrijgesteld is van RV. Beaulieulaan noteert vandaag 1.82% hoger op €140 bij een omzet van 120 stuks. Overmorgen 26 juli noteert het certificaat ex-coupon. Morgen zijn dus dagorders aanbevolen.

Miners relative to precious metal prices: a tactical approach

Approach

The focus of this blog article is on gold and silver miners from a tactical point of view: how do PM miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver.  Since the start of the gold bull, did precious metal miners by far outperform the gold and silver they produce?

For nearly eight years they surely did. Gold miners shown are represented by the HUI, ticker symbol for the AMEX "basket of unhedged gold stocks". The graph below shows both the HUI index and gold bullion; further down the characteristics shown is the HUI/Gold ratio, giving an obvious idea on how cheap or expensive gold stocks are relative to bullion.

No mercy for gold explorers

A gold explorer ETF

Early October 2011, I pointed to the poor performance of junior gold stocks and of explorers in particular. With GLDX, the Global X Gold Explorer ETF, we have a suitable benchmark for that market segment. How has the situation evolved ever since? Let's first have a look at the GLDX graph since October 2011:

Global X gold explorer ETF (GLDX) the last 9 months

Doesn't look very nice, but then again: miners have been in a terrible slump, largely underperforming gold bullion over more than a year now. Are you off worse with explorers, as was the case in October?
We did witness a recovery of GLDX early 2012 and after the mid May disastreous swoon, a swift recovery followed. Yamana Gold bidding for Extorre added some spice to the rally. (GLDX has Extorre among its holdings; but on the flip side Yamana will acquire Extorre on the cheap as compared to what it quoted like a year ago).

Vastgoedcertificaten zonder schwung de zomer tegemoet

De Petercam Brecs returnindex van de vastgoedcertificaten vertoonde doorheen de maand mei een zeer vlak verloop. Sedert wij eind april postgevat hebben beneden 68000, waren de wekelijkse schommelingen zonder veel betekenis. Het gemiddelde couponrendement blijft daarmee op 6.37%.

Brecs index (blauw, linkeras) en gemiddeld couponrendement (rood, rechteras) - Klikken om te vergroten.

Sedert de uitbetaling van het liquidatiedividend van Westland en Westland 2004 werden de certificaten niet meer genoteerd. De certificaten stonden samen voor ruim 11% van de beurskapitalisatie van het segment. De dominantie van de shopping-certificaten (nu meer dan 70% van de beurskapitalisatie) zal daardoor wat afnemen.

Climbing the wall of worry

Gold and Silver Miner weakness has been with us for too long. On the "gold miner pulse" blog page, you find continuous (at least weekly) updates on how major precious metal miners are priced relative to gold. For that purpose the HUI/Gold ratio is used. By mid May, it bottomed below 0.25, a value not seen since the very October 2008 market bottom. In the previous posting, The Slump in Precious Metal Miners you read it in detail.

The slump in precious metal miners

Havoc during the financial crisis 

Before the 2008 financial crisis and as late as March 08, when gold peaked above $1000 for the first time ever, the popular HUI index of unhedged gold miners quoted above 500. The ratio HUI/Gold had been in a trading range between 0.4 and 0.6 for several years. This seemed to be a dynamic equilibrium. Forced liquidations during the financial crisis caused a near 30% retreat for gold, bringing the price down to around $725 (not counting intraday lows). This meant carnage for the gold miners, which fell off a cliff, with the HUI plunging from 515 (March 14) to 152 (Oct 27). The HUI/Gold ratio plunged from 0.51 to 0.21 between those two dates.

Risk mispricing

Derivative positions are accumulating profits… while sweeping on to a catastrophe

"JP Morgan May Be a Trading Accident Waiting To Happen" is what you may like to read on "Jesse’s cross road café blog". JPM’s two billion dollar loss on credit derivatives is making it more and more obvious that the quadrillion derivative positions outstanding are really the accident waiting to happen.

But how can risk models be so flawed that financial collapse is looming behind the corner? Well, just listen to John Butler, author of “The Golden Revolution” as interviewed by Jim Puplava on ‘Financial Sense’, especially the section from 21’30” to 28’30” dealing with risk taking.

Stijgende trend gebroken

De vastgoedcertificaten zijn 2011 niet alleen goed doorgekomen, zij hebben de BEL-20 netto returnindex ruim het nakijken gegeven. Hoe liggen de kaarten nu?

Small is beautiful / Klein maar dapper

Abstract

There are a couple of challenges facing Eugene Fama’s “efficient market hypothesis” (EMH). According to this hypothesis, trading systematically at a profit always results in reducing market inefficiency. Hence markets are evolving towards more efficiency.

Two of the challenges are:

·         the outperformance of value stocks relative to growth stocks in most markets and most of the time;

·         the outperformance of small or mid-caps relative to large enterprises.

This contribution will illustrate the latter, focusing on three national markets of the Euronext group: Belgium, France and the Netherlands.

Résumé

Il ya quelques défis auxquels est confronté "l’hypothèse du marché efficace" (EMH) d‘Eugène Fama. Selon cette hypothèse, la réalisation systématique de bénéfices se traduit toujours par la réduction de l'inefficacité du marché. Ainsi les marchés évoluent vers une plus grande efficacité.

Deux des défis à relever sont:

·         La surperformance des titres de valeur par rapport aux titres de croissance dans la plupart des marchés et la plupart du temps;

·         La surperformance des actions des entreprises à petite ou moyenne capitalisation aux grandes entreprises.

Cette contribution veut d'illustrer ce dernier, en se concentrant sur trois marchés nationaux du groupe Euronext: la Belgique, la France et les Pays-Bas.

Samenvatting

Er zijn enkele uitdagingen aan het adres van Eugene Fama’s “efficiënte mark hypothese” (EMH). Volgens deze hypothese reduceren systematisch winstgevende beursverrichtingen altijd de markt inefficiëntie. Daardoor evolueren markten naar meer efficiëntie.

Twee van die uitdagingen zijn:

·         het betere resultaat dat met beleggingen in waarde-aandelen gehaald wordt in vergelijking met groei-aandelen op de meeste markten en over een langere periode;

·         het betere resultaat dat met beleggingen in aandelen met kleine of middelgrote beurskapitalisatie kan gehaald worden, vergeleken met het gemiddelde van de grotere aandelen.

Deze bijdrage illustreert dit laatste, wat dan aangetoond wordt met voorbeelden uit drie nationale markten van de Euronext beurs: België, Frankrijk en Nederland.

Benchmarking the HUI versus the XAU

There are two gold and silver miners indices frequently referred to:

1. Philadelphia Gold and Silver miners index with ticker ^XAU   (data since Dec 19, 1983) and
2. the AMEX Unhedged Gold Bugs Index with ticker ^HUI (data since Jun 04, 1996)

In a previous posting, I have been checking the long term performance of the present components of the HUI index. Today's focus is on benchmarking the HUI versus the XAU.

In both cases the past reference date has been July 31, 2002. There are data for all present HUI components going back to that date. For the present XAU components this is not the case: Silver Wheaton started quoting on TSX only by end 2004 and on the NYSE only in 2005. The long-term performance over nearly a decade of the HUI is 4.750, meaning that $1 turns into $4.75 over this period. For the ^XAU the long term performance is 3.086. The ^HUI outperforms the ^XAU by an aggregated of 53.9% or an annualized 4.6%.