Saturday, 29 September 2018

The HUI/Gold ratio: what's left in Pandora's box?

With the yellow metal stubbornly quoting below $1200/Oz, miners suffered badly. The HUI index is closing 2018 Q3 at 141.1. Earlier, n September 10, the HUI closed at a low of 134. We need to look back to early Feb 2016 to find a lower close.

HUI / Gold: Daily observations over the last 6 months. (click to enlarge)
Despite gold grinding lower over the whole observation period, HUI/Gold kept up relatively well until early July.  The erosion of the gold price initially coincided with the USD strengthening. Towards the end of June, the gold price started sliding in most currencies. Yet miners proved resilient at the start of summer. The storm front hit by mid August and miners fell off a cliff.

HUI / Gold: Daily observations year-to-date. (click to enlarge)

The first graph disguises the initial slide of HUI/Gold during the first few months of 2018.  Despite gold holding up relatively well during winter, miners have been persistently lagging

What's left in Pandora's box?

All misfortunes have hit by now...  According to Greek mythology, what's left in Pandora's box is hope.  When having a closer look at the first graph, technical analysts will recognize the 'inverted head and shoulders' formation, which is about to be completed. This often is the prelude for a more substantial recovery of the HUI.  

However this can only succeed if the yellow metal regains $1200 and stays well above, resuming its recovery in a hopelessly delayed autumn rally.

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