This blog page contains graphs last updated on Mar 17, 2023
NEXT UPDATE IS PLANNED with graphs as of Mar 31, 2023
NOTE: The detailed Gold Miner Pulse blog page has been updated as of 30 Dec
The blog page is monitoring whether trends are persisting. Therefore the graphs posted here are showing daily observations year-to-date or with a 6 months time horizon. For the long term reference frame, see the articles referenced at the bottom.
Unhedged Gold miners relative to Gold bullion
Where are we today?
Where are we today?
(relative to the Mar 2020 trough and the 2020-23 highs)
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) relative to silver bullion
|Global-X Silver Miners ETF, SIL relative to silver bullion; Daily observations over 6 months. Click to enlarge|
Canadian Gold and Silver Mining indices
How gold miners are performing is shown by the capitalization weighed gold miners index of stocks included in the Gold Miner Pulse database (yellow diamond symbols). Note that most quotes are in CAD, which has been fluctuating to the USD. The blue graph shows the GMP silver miners index. The long term depreciation of the CAD mitigated the miner loss during gold miner bear market.
The silver mining index has been the first to break above parity, despite silver lagging gold since we started over 10 years ago. They recovered from their winter 2021/22 downturn, but slid back.
|GMP list based (and capitalization weighed) gold (yellow dots), silver (blue) and equal weight (red) miners indices. Reference level 1000 on Nov 19, 2010 (click to enlarge)|
Note that the index calculation always is compensated for composition changes.
The performance disparity among the gold and silver miners of the GMP database is striking. Several laggards seem moribund. The median (or middle) miner (with an equal number better and worse) is now losing 56.2%: more than a double is needed before breaking even. The average is about breaking even, now posting a 0.7% gain. The performance distribution is slanted towards the high gains.
|GMP Miners sorted by loss to gain since inception on Nov 19, 2010. Note that the top miners are left out to avoid excessive scale expansion Click to enlarge|
There are 18 miners/explorers losing 90% or more, with 6 thereof down over 95%. At the opposite side 27 miners are still quoting above their Nov 2010 mark, now led by Filo Mining; 14 stocks have doubled. The top 9 miners are omitted in the above graph to avoid excessive scale expansion, but you find the top-14 in full detail below:
|GMP elite miners, sorted by gain since starting observations in Nov 2010 (logarithmic view with ticks 100% apart.|
A more detailed analysis including list composition changes, is found on the page "miners performance". The miners included in the database are classified in five performance quintiles. This allows evaluating how individual miners went with the herd or against the grid.
The contributor driven explorer and (junior) mining spreadsheet
Pooling efforts with any cooperative peers out there, I started the “contributor driven explorer and junior mining spreadsheet” end 2011. The idea is to get a selection of explorers, junior or mid-tier producers of gold and/or silver. This spreadsheet is updated monthly. Sector benchmarks (ETF's) were added since the very start.
Related blog articlesSeveral more detailed articles focusing on the longer term have been published. These are using the same approach as this blog page and still are a good read to grasp the historic perspective:
- Miners relative to precious metals: a tactical approach; (July 2, 2012)
- Miners relative to precious metals: An update on 2012; (Jan 13, 2013)
- Anatomy of a gold miner bear market (Dec 30, 2013)
- Three year slide of precious metal miners (Dec 31, 2014)
- Gold miner bear market starting its fifth year (Jan 3, 2016)
- Precious metal miners relative to metal prices (Dec 31, 2016)
- Precious metal mining in 2018: a dark cloud with a silver lining and 2019 outlook (29 Dec 2018)
- Gold Miner Pulse 2019 (half-year update) (Jul 1, 2019)
- Precious metal and miner 2019 overview and outlook for 2020. (Dec 31, 2019)
- Gold Miner Pulse - Friday March 13 (Mar 13, 2020)
- Gold Miner Pulse - October 2020 update (Oct 10, 2020)