Gold Miner Pulse

This blog page contains graphs last updated on Mar 28
The focus of this blog page is on the gold and silver miners from a tactical point of view: how do PM miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver.

NEXT UPDATE IS PLANNED with graphs as of  Apr 11.

NOTE: The detailed Gold Miner Pulse blog page has been updated as of 29 Dec

The blog page is monitoring whether trends are persisting. Therefore the graphs posted here are showing daily observations year-to-date or with a 6 months time horizon. For the long term reference frame, see the articles referenced at the bottom.


Unhedged Gold miners relative to Gold bullion 

Where are we today? 
(relative to the Mar 2020 trough and the 2020-24 highs)

Last

Up_Min

Min

Max

Down_max

Relative Strength

Gold

2223

51.8%

1,471.4

2223

0%

100%

on date:

HUI

247.2

51%

163.7

363.9

-32.1%

42%

Mar 28, 2024


HUI/Gold graph

HUI index relative to Gold daily observations over the last 6 months, click to enlarge



Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) relative to silver bullion

SIL/Silver graph

Global-X Silver Miners ETF, SIL relative to silver bullion; Daily observations over 6 months. Click to enlarge


Canadian Gold and Silver Mining indices

How gold miners are performing is shown by the capitalization weighed gold miners index of stocks included in the Gold Miner Pulse database (yellow diamond symbols). Note that most quotes are in CAD, which has been fluctuating to the USD. The blue graph shows the GMP silver miners index. The long term depreciation of the CAD mitigated miner loss during the gold miner bear market.

The silver mining index has been the first to break above parity, despite silver lagging gold since we started over 10 years ago. Silver miners recovered from their winter 2021/22 downturn and have been hopping 'above parity' and sliding back below several times.

GMP list based (and capitalization weighed) gold (yellow dots), silver (blue) and equal weight (red) miners indices. Reference 1000 on Nov 19, 2010  (click to enlarge)

Note that the index calculation always is compensated for composition changes. 


Performance graph

The performance disparity among the gold and silver miners of the GMP database is striking. Several laggards seem moribund. The median (or middle) miner (with an equal number better and worse) is now losing 57.3%: more than a double is needed before breaking even. The average only emerged from the red +12.8%. The performance distribution is slanted towards the high gains.

GMP Miners sorted by loss to gain since inception on Nov 19, 2010. Note that the top miners are left out to avoid excessive scale expansion Click to enlarge

There are 21 miners/explorers losing 90% or more, with 12 thereof down over 95%. At the opposite side 30 miners are quoting above their Nov 2010 mark, led by Filo Mining; 14 stocks have doubled. The top 14 miners are omitted in the above graph to avoid excessive scale expansion, but you find these elite miners in full detail below

GMP elite miners, sorted by gain since starting observations in Nov 2010 (logarithmic view with ticks 100% apart. These few miners have more than doubled; click to enlarge


A more detailed analysis including list composition changes, is found on the page "miners performance". The miners included in the database are classified in five performance quintiles. This allows evaluating how individual miners went with the herd or against the grid.

The contributor driven explorer and (junior) mining spreadsheet

Pooling efforts with any cooperative peers out there, I started the “contributor driven explorer and junior mining spreadsheet” end 2011. The idea is to get a selection of explorers, junior or mid-tier producers of gold and/or silver. This spreadsheet is updated monthly. Sector benchmarks (ETF's) were added since the very start.

Related blog articles

Several more detailed articles focusing on the longer term have been published. These are using the same approach as this blog page and still are a good read to grasp the historic perspective:
  1. Miners relative to precious metals: a tactical approach; (July 2, 2012)
  2. Miners relative to precious metals: An update on 2012;  (Jan 13, 2013)
  3. Anatomy of a gold miner bear market (Dec 30, 2013)
  4. Three year slide of precious metal miners (Dec 31, 2014)
  5. Gold miner bear market starting its fifth year (Jan 3, 2016)
  6. Precious metal miners relative to metal prices (Dec 31, 2016)
  7. Precious metal mining in 2018: a dark cloud with a silver lining and 2019 outlook (29 Dec 2018)
  8. Gold Miner Pulse 2019 (half-year update) (Jul 1, 2019)
  9. Precious metal and miner 2019 overview and outlook for 2020. (Dec 31, 2019)
  10. Gold Miner Pulse - Friday March 13 (Mar 13, 2020)
  11. Gold Miner Pulse - October 2020 update (Oct 10, 2020)
During 2011-15 and even over the long haul, the relative performance of mining majors to the precious metals they produce was disappointing for major gold miners, even while the metals were in a solid uptrend.  See: Gold miners: three decades for naught or Decades of underperformance