Miners reviving

Broad stock markets are hesitating after the December rally. Over the week Nasdaq holds on to a tiny gain but the S&P couldn't keep up. Precious metals seem to be floating with the tide: both gold and silver were retreating, but rally back on Friday to end the week up marginally. Gold ends at $1254, (+0.44% over the week) while silver closes at $20.32, (up 0.74%).

Over most of 2013, poor precious metal gains and broad stock markets hesitating, would have sent miners sliding. However a different mantra seems to have taken the lead. The HUI index added 3.47% over the week, making HUI/Gold appreciate to 0.173. Whereas this is hardly something to be proud on (comparing where we started 2013), it's definitely up since the December 2013 low. It's not that most miners suddenly have turned highly profitable, but rather that investors simply are fed up with the doom scenario.

Hui mining index relative to gold

A happy and prosperous 2014 to all readers.

Two gold miner bear markets compared

A very long term graph of the HUI gold miners index naturally goes together with a historic view of the gold price. The Yahoo data series for the HUI index starts off in 1996.

Anatomy of a gold miner bear market

Last two years, we've witnessed a plunge of precious metal prices from before Christmas leading to the New Year. The relentless gold bear raids from mid April onwards, lead to a multi year low for gold on June 28 and the following recovery completely was wiped out with gold equalling the June 28 low on Thursday Dec 19. It seems the gold bear has gotten ahead of itself.

Much the same accounts for the miners, which ceased to leverage down precious metal prices last week and were vigorously reviving, despite meager gains for the metals. Over the short trading week leading to Friday Dec 27, gold added a timid 0.86% on the Comex close to end at $1213.80, while -after its major plunge- silver added 3.43% closing at 20.08. The HUI index of major gold and silver miners added 4.23% with the HUI/Gold ratio now up to 0.1633, hovering above its decade low.

Gold price volatility: Real swing still to come...

The below graph shows the price of gold since the start of 2008, gold was about to break above $1000/oz for the first time in history. We all more or less remember what was to follow, but human memory is selective and often narrows down to the more recent events. Apart from the price of gold (in blue using the left axis), a second graph in red (using the right axis) shows an annualized measure of gold price volatility. It wants to tell a story...

Gold mining: the fading away of an industry...

The protracted downtrend of precious metal prices may have run its course, there is however no clear indication of much higher gold and silver prices in the near or medium term future.  Gold is moving sideways, unable to uphold $1400 for more than a few days.  Producers are scrutinizing their mining sites and not without reason. Production at mines with high total production costs may need to be scaled back.  Any new mining development will need to factor in lower gold prices going forward and the internal rate of return will be substantially lower.  Especially on sites where investment costs have been spiralling out of control, tough decisions may have to be made.  It should be clear that, under these circumstances, the global gold mining output will continue its decline, possibly at an accelerated pace.  Gold mining: the fading away of an industry...

Precious metals and miners make a U-turn

After grinding lower the first week of August, precious metals made a U-turn. The sentiment change sent the heavily depressed miners soaring. HUI/Gold made it to 0.20 last week and now stands at 0.195. (for fresh graphs, check the GoldMinerPulse page). While we could barely imagine any value below that 0.20 threshold until recently, we're glad the gloomy days are behind us (at least for a while). Last Friday gold peaked above $1400 intraday for the first time since early June.

Brutal end of a nascent gold miner recovery

We 've witnessed a nascent precious metal miner recovery since June 27, as miners have started recovering even before gold found its final bottom below $1200 in the morning of June 28. For as long as the stealth gold rally had legs, miners responded favorably. The gold rally was petering out the week after last posting:
The stealth gold recovery rally. Gold has been sliding from July 29 onwards. Despite a small technical recovery last Friday, the gold slide aggravates. Whenever there is some rumor out about "tapering" the QE3/QE4 bond purchase programs of the FED, hell breaks loose.

The stealth gold recovery rally

Ever since bottoming in the morning of June 28, gold has been hesitantly drifting higher. The short first week of July, with American and Canadian exchanges closed for the national day, the yellow metal lingered on, apparently challenging its June 28 bottom. Gold closed the short week down 1%, however without closing below $1200. Ever since we seem to experience a stealth gold recovery rally. Until this morning, $1300 seemed to be a firm resistance for gold. After a few failed attempts, we're now vigorously steaming up higher.

Depressive June ending with a manic gold miner recovery rally

Precious metal investors have been watching in disbelief how gold tumbled through all resistance levels eventually bottoming well below $1200 in European trading and during the NYMEX morning session, yesterday June 28. The recovery rally however was written in the stars:

• On Thursday, precious metal miners followed the stock market recovery, ignoring the continuing plunge of the yellow metal;
• While gold continued the last stage in its race to the bottom, silver upheld well on Thursday and both platinum and palladium reverted course and started recovering; the proverbial "bridge too far" for gold bears...

Investing in gold miners and getting out alive (?)

When plotting the HUI index (basket of unhedged gold miners) relative to gold, we've been witnessing an almost uninterrupted slide since nearly three years. HUI/gold made a post Feb 2001 low last month (well below the crisis bottom level of 2008). As gold held above $1400 a couple of weeks ago, HUI/Gold was flirting with its 0.200 resistance. Until few months ago it was difficult to conceive HUI/Gold ever breaking below that 0.200; yet it has and is again challenging its 0.181 bottom.