Monday, 21 May 2018

Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC)

  • What should we remember from the PDAC 2018?
  • Why didn't I come up with this any sooner?
Ever heard of the PDAC curse? Quite often, mining stocks plunge right after the annual PDAC meeting mid March. The seasonal pattern of the gold price is not very favorable in that particular period of the year. Right after the Chinese new year in February, physical gold demand tends to slump.  You often hear Frank Holmes talk about gold in terms of 'The Love Trade'. Especially in the big Asian emerging economies, gold is appreciated as a wedding gift. This tradition is firmly underpinned by weak currencies and above average inflation. Early summer is when the interest in physical gold should return. Moreover the 2018 Ramadan ends mid June, sparking also demand in the Arab world.
Physical demand also is why the much touted summer slump often is rather shallow and short. Any summer weakness originates in traders liquidating gold contracts before leaving for holidays.

Gold prices have been range bound. Eventually the yellow metal is giving way after the USD curbed its slide. Because of a weak dollar, miners had a hard time as they were lagging the gold price during most of 2017 and until recently.  Dollar strength is beneficial for most miners since they have their expenses in currencies of the producer countries, most of which aren't pegged to the USD.
Unless the pendulum goes all the way, with the USD strengthening to a point where it inhibits any appreciation of precious metals and most other commodities, miners should respond better once gold resumes its upward trajectory as demand picks up.

One more observation on the PDAC curse: it has come early!  Miners had been lagging gold and selling off during the latter half of 2017, dragging their feet during the January '18 gold recovery. Yet pretty all of the downward potential was exhausted as PDAC started. No 'V-shaped' bottom for miners unfortunately. The HUI still is at the same level now; an achievement given gold weakening a few percent!

Professional Mining Stock Investing Advice from David Erfle at PDAC 2018

At PDAC 2018 in Toronto, Bill Powers of Mining Stock Education teamed up with Nick the Mining Book Guy (@MiningBookGuy on Twitter, YouTube and CEO.CA) to query professional mining stock investor David Erfle (www.JuniorMinerJunky.com) regarding his approach to investing and his current thoughts on opportunities in the resource markets.  David shared his thoughts regarding investing in various mining jurisdictions, share structure of junior explorers, specific types of mining investments, his use of JNUG at cyclical bottoms and regarding his current outlook on the gold mining sector.

0:21 Introductions of Topic and Guests
0:59 David’s thoughts re: Africa, Latin America & Asian jurisdictions
5:56 David’s thoughts re: investing in a junior explorer with a bloated share structure
8:27 Allocating a mining stock portfolio
10:11 David’s thoughts on investing in gold royalty companies
11:05 David’s current thoughts on investing in silver producers
12:25 Discussing Idaho as a mining jurisdiction
15:12 When and how to utilize JNUG at a cyclical bottom
17:24 David’s thoughts on investor sentiment at PDAC 2018
19:40 Would David invest in a mining scam if he knew he could profit from trading its shares?
20:16 How David mitigates California’s high taxes as a mining investor
21:46 Parting wisdom for mining investors

I don't really agree on all points, especially David Erfle disliking Streamers and Royalty companies is against the odds. Over the long haul these companies tend to resist better any downturn in the mining space. His neglecting prospect generators also goes against what Brent Cook (next segment) has in higher esteem. Triple variation ETFs such as JNUG or NUGT, I wouldn't touch with a six feet pole. If you don't get your timing perfectly right, it's money wasted. Speculators should consider them similar to options.  However it's not time but rather volatility killing you.

PDAC 2018: Brent Cook & Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights

Brent Cook and Joe Mazumdar stop by for a chat with Oreninc about the current market sentiment, investments by the majors, battery metals and trends at PDAC.




PDAC Core shack



Brent Cook of Exploration Insights walks the floor of PDAC 2018 and stops by the core shack of Regulus Resources (TSX-V: REG). He talks rocks with Kevin Heather, Chief Geologist.

Facts trump fiction in Exploration Analysis - Brent Cook

Cambridge House International Inc.
Published on Feb 16, 2018


Why it's important to get out of an explorer investment quickly once elements show up which indicate the resource may not be profitable to mine.

Extra: with an interesting questions section.

Just a few more, starting with a new short video talk

This is where the next big discovery might be



Kitco NEWS - Published on May 22, 2018
The next big discovery of precious metals is likely to come out of Latin America, said Brent Cook of Exploration Insights.  It's a safe bet imho.

Myth-Busting: Gold Prices Rallies Not Needed To Make Money

Investors shouldn’t be too caught up in potential metals price rallies, since there are opportunities to make money even if prices trade sideways, this according to the panelists at the International Mining Investment Conference in Vancouver.
Ivan Bebek, CEO of Auryn Resources, noted that if a miner has successful projects, market prices are irrelevant to the miner’s stock outperforming.
“2014, we sold a company where we drilled 100 holes, we didn’t have a resource, amidst the bear market, for $200 million,” Bebek said.Still, some on the panel said that it depends on which metal you’re leveraged to.
“There are gold companies that will double as gold moves and silver companies that will legitimately go ten times,” said E.B. Tucker, editor at Casey Research.



Top Stock Picks of 2018 - Brent Cook, Mickey Fulp & David Erfle

by Cambridge House International Inc.

What are your top stock picks of 2018? Our expert panel is here with exclusive insight into stocks that could maximize your investments.
Watch as Brent Cook (Exploration Insights), Mickey Fulp (Mercenary Geologist), Cory Fleck (Korelin Economics Report) and David Erfle (Junior Miner Junky) put the spotlight on some of their top stock picks.


More of this?

In case the presentations of Brent Cook & Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights fascinate you, I've been reporting on those on an 'Exploration Insights' thread on the Freegold forum.

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