Tuesday, 24 April 2018

Long term performance of Gold Miners

Previous few postings have warned against betting on leverage when investing in gold mining stocks. Miners occasionally outperform when gold rallies really get traction. They seldom even prove a decent investment when a substantial number of influential investors are convinced that the bottom is in for the gold price. However, miners more often lag the metal while it's rising or slide precipitously upon gold weakening.  The focus now shifts to statistics on individual miners: both success stories and horrendous nightmares.
The analysis made is using the extended Gold Miner Pulse database. These are the 94 miners and explorers regularly monitored on the Miners Performance Page, but to which some extra large cap gold- and silver miners (several non-Canadian) have been added.
The list also includes several replacement candidates for miners which will leave the selection: by now it's only a matter of time before the acquisition of (what's left of) Primero Mining by First Majestic and of Klondex Mines by Hecla will be concluded.

Note: All values were 'frozen' to prevent formulas behaving erratically on some platforms; stock prices as of April 20, 2018.

Parameters listed

Identification current and recent prices (A-L)
  1. Full company name
  2. Quote (as used on Yahoo)
  3. Change and Pct-change (however irrelevant this may be over the long haul)
  4. Currency (Often the TSX quote in CAD is chosen)
  5. Time of the last quote
  6. Volume on that day
  7. 52 weeks low
  8. 52 weeks high
  9. Range in percentage from low to high
  10. Strength indication  (0-100 indicates where we are between low and high)

Next columns are mainly for the 94 GMP listed miners (M-P)
  1. Entry price in the long term list
  2. Long term change
  3. Long term percentage change
  4. Entry date (usually Nov 19, 2010 - later for 'newer' explorers or miners)

Note that the percentage change is corrected for FX fluctuations.  Changes are as observed in CAD. (Q-AA)
  1. Other fundamental and performance parameters
  2. Market capitalization (in M$)
  3. Earnings per share (expectation current accounting year)
  4. Forward Price Earnings ratio
  5. Dividend Payment date
  6. Ex-dividend quoting date
  7. Dividend per share
  8. Forward annual dividend rate
  9. Forward annual dividend yield (%)
  10. Trailing annual dividend rate (last paid)
  11. Trailing annual dividend yield (%)
  12. Price to book ratio

Historic prices and performance since then (AB-AG)
  1. 'Historic low' during the 2015-Jan 2016 gold bear market bottom
  2. Current performance since the historic low
  3. Twelve month performance (since Apr 12, 2017)
  4. Stock price on Apr 12, 2017 (previous long term observation)
  5. Apr 2017 Performance since the historic low
  6. Apr 2017 Long term performance since list entry (date see above)
Note: performances are calculated from the point of view of a Canadian investor. Please observe that the USD was very weak after two waves of QE by end 2010, with the CAD above parity to the USD.
As such the picture looks (still) too rosy for a US investor. 


Main parameters and sorting

Miners are sorted by decreasing market capitalization. The top section of 26 large and medium cap miners have a market capitalization in excess of $ 2 B.  There are 40 small caps between $200 M and $ 2 B.  That leaves 50 micro-caps and nano caps with a market capitalization ranging from less than $2 M to $200 M.
At the bottom of the table, a reference section covers some mining and bullion ETFs, followed by the two precious metal mining indexes, the main US indexes Dow Jones Ind., S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. and finally the four main currencies used  for any of the quotes.

Table 1: Main parameters for large and medium cap miners, followed by the benchmarks

Full name
Symbol
Curr-
ency
Price (4/20)
52W Min
52W Max
Range
Strength
Market Cap (M$)
Freeport McMoran Copper&Gold
FCX
USD
19.36
11.05
20.25
83.3%
90.3%
28030
Newmont Mining
NEM
USD
41.35
31.42
42.04
33.8%
93.5%
22070
Goldcorp Inc.
G.TO
CAD
18.24
15
20.23
34.9%
62.0%
15830
Newcrest Mining
NCM.AX
AUD
20.55
19.26
24.27
26.0%
25.7%
15750
Barrick Gold
ABX
USD
13.17
11.07
19.26
74.0%
25.6%
14800
Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited
AEM.TO
CAD
56.28
48.04
68.76
43.1%
39.8%
13500
Franco Nevada
FNV
USD
71.21
64.9
86.06
32.6%
29.8%
12730
Fresnillo PLC (£)
FRES.L
GBp
1287
1150.5
1746
51.8%
22.9%
9480
Wheaton Precious Metals
WPM
USD
21.31
18.32
22.72
24.0%
68.0%
9080
Randgold
GOLD
USD
80.58
77.7
108.29
39.4%
9.4%
7450
Kinross Gold Corporation
K.TO
CAD
4.93
4.44
6.29
41.7%
26.5%
6160
Royal Gold
RGLD
USD
89.46
67.1
94.39
40.7%
81.9%
5860
Kirkland Lake Gold
KL.TO
CAD
21.29
8.67
22.28
157.0%
92.7%
4500
Companhia Buenaventura
BVN
USD
16.56
10.87
16.8
54.6%
96.0%
4210
Anglogold Ashanti
AU
USD
9.16
8.86
12.4
40.0%
8.5%
3780
Yamana Gold Inc.
YRI.TO
CAD
3.77
2.84
4.68
64.8%
50.5%
3580
Pan American Silver Corp.
PAAS.TO
CAD
22.08
18
25.3
40.6%
55.9%
3390
Gold Fields
GFI
USD
4.02
3.06
4.7
53.6%
58.5%
3350
Iamgold
IMG.TO
CAD
7.06
4.89
8.87
81.4%
54.5%
3290
Alamos Gold Inc
AGI.TO
CAD
7
6.19
10.5
69.6%
18.8%
2730
B2 Gold
BTG
USD
2.84
2.15
3.3
53.5%
60.0%
2690
Detour Gold Corporation
DGC.TO
CAD
15.01
11.48
18.88
64.5%
47.7%
2630
Endeavour Mining Corp.
EDV.TO
CAD
21.62
19.77
26.86
35.9%
26.1%
2330
Centerra gold
CG.TO
CAD
7.83
5.9
9.35
58.5%
55.9%
2280
Tahoe Resources Inc.
THO.TO
CAD
6.87
4.75
12.98
173.3%
25.8%
2150
Oceana Gold
OGC.TO
CAD
3.47
2.92
4.94
69.2%
27.2%
2140
Market Vectors Gold miners
GDX
USD
22.71
20.84
25.58
22.7%
39.5%

Market Vectors Junior Gold miners
GDXJ
USD
33.49
29.33
37.76
28.7%
49.3%

GlobalX Gold Explorers
GOEX
USD
23.25
20.24
25.21
24.6%
60.6%

GlobalX Silver Miners
SIL
USD
31.45
28.21
37.3
32.2%
35.6%

Bullion Gold ETF
GLD
USD
126.63
114.8
129.51
12.8%
80.4%

Bullion Silver ETF
SLV
USD
16.13
14.44
17.14
18.7%
62.6%

Philadelphia Gold&Silver index
^XAU
USD
85.12
75.65
93.39
23.5%
53.4%

Unhedged Gold Bugs Index
^HUI
USD
184.18
168.45
220.22
30.7%
30.4%











Can 'strength' and 'Range' guide you for investment decisions?  There are a few caveats: 52 weeks trailing highs or lows are not resistance levels or supports.  If there is an upward momentum, the high will eventually be exceeded: the range may extend and strength will hover near 100%.
Poor corporate performance will be punished by the market, with the range extending down and strength lingering at or near 0%.  You may be better off if a miner keeps meandering in the bottom half of the range, with strength below 50%.  Buying 'good miners' cheap is a more fruitful strategy. I can't help pointing to Randgold (GOLD in USD) as a likely example.  Streamer Franco Nevada (FNV) doesn't seem to be overly priced either.  Oceana Gold (OGC.TO) in CAD, but equally quoting in USD could be another decent choice, based on this criterion.
If you happen to be invested in one of the above, now is not the moment to sell !

The complete spreadsheet (link at the top) adds small caps and micro-caps to the picture. This requires some more 'homework' as to separate the wheat from the chaff when using 'strength' as an investment criterion.  You need avoiding buying a doomed miner which probably never may escape from its downtrend.  If it avoids bankruptcy, it will end up being scooped up on the cheap.  Steer clear of such miners.

Forward guidance and Price to book ratio

Since we are in the second quarter of 2018, a forward guidance over the current bookkeeping year 2018 makes more sense than looking back to the 2017 performance.  At the other hand, the book value of an enterprise only is calculated by the end of the bookkeeping year.  Whereas quarterly results report on operational earnings mainly, the book value also takes on board all capital operations. Dividing the stock price by the book value per share gives a good idea of how 'expensive' a stock is.  Caution needs to be taken when drawing conclusions:
  • Total book value equals the balance sheet total assets minus debt. A debt free miner has a more robust book value.
  • Book value may vary due to non-cash events, such as write downs or appreciations.
  • Most of total book value are not current assets. They can't easily be realized.
  • The book value always looks at the past. Especially if a mining company has a hard time, book value may erode rapidly.
Table 2: forward PE and stock price to book value ratio (large miners)

Full name
Symbol
Last Price
Currency
Market Cap (M$)
EPS Est Next Year
Forward P/E
Price/Book
Freeport McMoran Copper&Gold
FCX
19.36
USD
28030
1.44
13.44
3.51
Newmont Mining
NEM
41.35
USD
22070
1.70
24.32
2.08
Goldcorp Inc.
G.TO
18.24
CAD
15830
0.77
23.69
1.12
Newcrest Mining
NCM.AX
20.55
AUD
15750
0.91
22.58
2.09
Barrick Gold
ABX
13.17
USD
14800
0.72
18.29
1.65
Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited
AEM.TO
56.28
CAD
13500
1.01
55.72
2.64
Franco Nevada
FNV
71.21
USD
12730
1.15
61.92
2.81
Fresnillo PLC (£)
FRES.L
1287
GBp
9480
0.77
16.64
3.13
Wheaton Precious Metals
WPM
21.31
USD
9080
0.74
28.8
1.93
Randgold
GOLD
80.58
USD
7450
3.77
21.37
2.05
Kinross Gold Corporation
K.TO
4.93
CAD
6160
0.15
32.87
1.34
Royal Gold
RGLD
89.46
USD
5860
2.24
39.94
2.59
Kirkland Lake Gold
KL.TO
21.29
CAD
4500
1.38
15.43
3.88
Companhia Buenaventura
BVN
16.56
USD
4210
1.21
13.69
1.48
Anglogold Ashanti
AU
9.16
USD
3780
0.94
9.74
1.41
Yamana Gold Inc.
YRI.TO
3.77
CAD
3580
0.18
20.94
0.83
Pan American Silver Corp.
PAAS.TO
22.08
CAD
3390
0.83
26.6
2.23
Gold Fields
GFI
4.02
USD
3350
0.24
16.75
1.01
Iamgold
IMG.TO
7.06
CAD
3290
0.15
47.07
1.18
Alamos Gold Inc
AGI.TO
7.00
CAD
2730
0.28
25
1.02
B2 Gold
BTG
2.84
USD
2690
0.21
13.52
1.80
Detour Gold Corporation
DGC.TO
15.01
CAD
2630
0.4
37.53
1.34
Endeavour Mining Corp.
EDV.TO
21.62
CAD
2330
1.57
13.77
2.36
Centerra gold
CG.TO
7.83
CAD
2280
0.69
11.35
1.13
Tahoe Resources Inc.
THO.TO
6.87
CAD
2150
0.6
11.45
0.82
Oceana Gold
OGC.TO
3.47
CAD
2140
0.22
15.77
1.43

After a four year precious metal bear market, miner price to book value ratios eroded.  Especially the persistent downtrend among miners (despite precious metals keeping up well) has distorted this ratio. Even among the large caps there are a few miners quoting below their book value per share.

... and then there are mineral reserves and resources ...

Whereas mining infrastructure are tangible assets and any granted mining permit can be booked as a non-tangible asset, accounting legislation doesn't generally allow mineral reserves and resources to be capitalized, though accounting legislation is not uniform across jurisdictions.
Investors most often take a diametrically opposite point of view. Especially during the secular gold rally, I sometimes noticed calling out gold reserves 'deep storage'.  Miners are then valued as a weighted fractional sum of proven and probable reserves and measured and indicated (or even inferred) resources.
Reserves are quite different from one another among mining sites and they also vary along their life span. A trustworthy valuation of any reserve should include the all-in sustaining costs and the probable margins while mining it along its life span.

Long term performance: key dates

Regular updates are being made with miners listed since the start of the database on Nov 19, 2010.  The added value in this article is that we add two key moments:
  • The precious metal and miner 'bear market bottom': notably the low reached for any individual miner in December 2015 to January 2016.  Gold bottomed several weeks before the HUI miners index eventually did by mid January 2016.
  • Last year (April 2016) a similar article was published. Since miners have been lagging the metal, most miners are down since last year, though gold gained a few percent (it still quoted below $1290 last year).
You find two scatter graphs: the first shows the 'best of class' recoveries since the bear market bottom. (on the horizontal axis) Those miners at least doubled since their low.  However that was no guarantee for last year. Their performance last year shows on the vertical axis: only a minority of these miners continued their ascent last year.  Few more scrambled to hold on whereas too many miners went down with the herd.

Miner performance scatter plot: miners doing best since the bear market bottom,
Horizontal axis: percentage change since bear market bottom; vertical axis: since April last year

The second scatter graph shows miners that did less well since the bear market bottom. For a few that really wasn't the bottom at all, since any initial recovery soon was smothered and these miners continued their decline. It won't come as a surprise that among this bottom half only few miners scrambled to hold on last year, whereas many slid along with the herd... or worse.

Miner performance scatter plot: miners doing worst since the bear market bottom,
Horizontal axis: percentage change since bear market bottom; vertical axis: since April last year

No miners are found in the top left quadrant of the graph.  All miners that didn't manage to hold on to any gain since the bear market bottom also were poor picks last year.

Miners confirming since bear market bottom

Graphs above raise curiosity, I know.  You can of course download the spreadsheet mentioned at the top and do some proper sorting. You find the key data in the table below:

Table 3:  Miners up since last year and how they managed since the bear market bottom

Full name
Symbol
Market Cap (M$)
Since BMB
Since last year
LT-change% (19-11-2010)
Telson Resources (Soho)
TSN.V
90.44
1700.0%
132.3%
-50.00
Arizona Mining
AZ.TO
1310
1804.5%
103.4%
916.99
Kirkland Lake Gold
KL.TO
4500
374.2%
100.5%
75.37
Gran Colombia Gold Corp
GCM.TO
59.65
180.0%
86.7%
-99.51
Trilogy Metals Inc.
TMQ.TO
172.4
675.0%
82.4%
-82.78
Laurion Mineral Exploration
LME.V
7.32
550.0%
62.5%
-40.91
Black Dragon Gold Corp
BDG.V
16.49
1300.0%
55.6%
-94.17
Freeport McMoran Copper&Gold
FCX
28030
450.0%
50.3%
Aura Minerals Inc.
ORA.TO
96.24
270.0%
48.0%
-37.73
Companhia Buenaventura
BVN
4210
401.8%
37.3%
Americas Silver
USA.TO
213.43
606.9%
26.0%
-60.36
International Tower Hill Mines Ltd.
ITH.TO
164.03
238.5%
25.7%
-88.87
Lydian International Limited
LYD.TO
343.46
139.5%
23.0%
-81.58
Grande Portage Res.
GPG.V
5.88
1850.0%
21.9%
-89.88
Royal Gold
RGLD
5860
262.5%
19.9%
133.06
Newmont Mining
NEM
22070
168.7%
17.9%
-12.30
Iamgold
IMG.TO
3290
370.7%
17.3%
-58.76
Mirasol Resources
MRZ.V
103.24
191.7%
15.4%
-42.78
Dundee Precious Metals Inc.
DPM.TO
589.03
292.9%
14.2%
-57.64
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.
FVI.TO
1210
184.9%
5.3%
89.70
Gold Fields
GFI
3350
97.1%
5.0%
-69.18
Sabina Gold & Silver Corporation
SBB.TO
445.74
453.1%
4.7%
-60.67
Bullion Gold ETF
GLD
26.3%
3.8%
Franco Nevada
FNV
12730
86.4%
1.8%
NGEx Resources Inc.
NGQ.TO
260.33
161.4%
1.8%
27.79

Only few miners are up since last year. Moreover the selection includes the gold bullion ETF (GLD) which is there only as a benchmark.  Miners followed in the GMP miner database have a value in the last column, showing their performance since Nov 19, 2010. 

Several miners or explorers still face stiff losses, despite large or even spectacular gains since the bear market bottom and confirming last year. Textbook example is Gran Portage Resources.  After spectacular gains since the bear market bottom and despite adding more than 20% last year, the explorer still is facing a near 90% loss over the long haul.
Gran Colombia Mining is yet another example.  After paying down its debt, the miner has been on its way to recovery for a while.  However long term shareholders have been diluted beyond comparison. After two share consolidations, 300 old shares from 2010 turned into one new share.  Adding 87% over last year won't bail out long term investors.
Telson Resources is further on its way to recovery.  The explorer more than doubled since last year and is up 17 fold since the bear market bottom; another double and Nov 2020 long term term investors may earn their money back.

Last year's best picks (only) includes five long term advances.  The inevitable Arizona Mining (Silver-Zinc miner) doubled last year and is up 18 fold since the bear market bottom. Moreover this is the only tenbagger long term.

Predictably, we also have Royal Gold in our selection exhibiting a long term advance. The royalty or streaming business model avoids much of the mining risk. This is more rewarding for shareholders over the long haul.

Kirkland Lake Gold and Fortuna Silver are two more raising stars.

Fallen angels and doomed miners or explorers

Applying the same method to the bottom of the list.  Which miners were lousy picks last year and how have they been doing prior to that?

Table 4: Miners which slid considerably since last year (sorted from bad to worse)

Full name
Symbol
Market Cap (M$)
Since BMB
Since last year
LT-change%
Barrick Gold
ABX
14800
122.8%
-34.9%
-67.25
Guyana Goldfields Inc.
GUY.TO
870.65
102.8%
-35.8%
-45.21
Chesapeake Gold Corp.
CKG.V
115.84
87.1%
-35.8%
-77.09
McEwen Mining Inc.
MUX.TO
962.9
225.0%
-37.2%
-51.42
Alamos Gold Inc
AGI.TO
2730
114.1%
-38.2%
-59.63
Pretium Resources Inc.
PVG.TO
1680
65.4%
-38.2%
52.23
Eastmain Resources Inc.
ER.TO
54.79
-1.8%
-38.2%
-83.43
Minco Silver Corporation
MSV.TO
44.31
128.1%
-38.7%
-86.46
Klondex Mines Ltd.
KDX.TO
567.58
23.4%
-38.9%
35.62
Spanish Mountain Gold Ltd.
SPA.V
25.56
450.0%
-38.9%
-82.54
Tahoe Resources Inc.
THO.TO
2150
-27.3%
-40.6%
-31.30
Miranda Gold
MAD.V
7.29
-8.3%
-42.1%
-92.14
Harte Gold Corp.
HRT.TO
240.62
750.0%
-44.1%
-38.41
Rye Patch Gold Corp.
RPM.V
94.08
62.2%
-44.2%
-38.46
Osisko Mining Inc.
OSK.TO
594.65
197.9%
-47.2%
255.75
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.
NDM.TO
389.77
346.4%
-48.3%
-60.94
Almaden Minerals Ltd.
AMM.TO
110.38
66.2%
-50.7%
-60.00
Torex Gold
TXG.TO
1090
51.6%
-50.8%
-5.22
Eco Oro Minerals Ltd.
EOM.CN
30.45
4.0%
-54.4%
-94.88
CMC Metals Ltd
CMB.V
1.8
-20.0%
-57.9%
-97.96
Gowest Amalgamated Res.
GWA.V
24.82
40.0%
-58.8%
-68.20
Lincoln Mining Corporation
LMG.V
1.68
25.0%
-61.5%
-98.61
Asanko Gold
AKG.TO
311.61
-22.0%
-62.9%
-84.50
Primero Mining Corp.
P.TO
51.16
-86.3%
-64.7%
-95.31
Red Eagle Mining Corp.
R.TO
101.72
4.0%
-65.8%
-76.36
Scorpio Gold Corporation
SGN.V
3.75
-40.0%
-66.7%
-95.24
Eldorado Gold Corporation
ELD.TO
982.46
-53.6%
-73.7%
-92.76
Golden Queen Mining Co.
GQM.TO
61.52
-68.5%
-77.0%
-91.60

This list contains quite a few miners which didn't even uphold the price level they slid to during the 2015 & Jan 2016 bear market bottom.

The list also includes some notorious fallen angels, which did rather well since the GMP list was started in Nov 2010 (or since inclusion).  However better days to realize profits have gone by.  Pretium Resources and Osisko Mining (explorer developer) are two textbook examples.

Klondex Mines also was a poor pick last year, despite appreciating after Hecla Silver made a take over deal.  Primero Mining is going to be taken over by First Majestic Silver.

Tahoe Resources, Torex Gold and Eldorado Gold all had operational issues which continue being a drag.  Yet while Torex still holds on to a 50% advance since the bear market bottom,  Tahoe lost 27% and Eldorado even is slashed to less than half its bear market price level.

Prior articles on this topic



1 comment:

  1. We are professional crusher manufacturers from China,If you need crusher,please visit our Alibaba website https://dewomachinery.en.alibaba.com/

    ReplyDelete