Precious metal and miner 2019 overview and outlook for 2020

Best wishes for 2020

This blog article is monitoring the trends over a 6 and over a 12 months time horizon. Therefore the graphs posted here are showing daily observations year-to-date. For the very long term reference frame, see the articles referenced at the bottom.

How raising capital reduces market capitalization

Highly counter-intuitive, yet that 's exactly what happens more than once. We shed our light at the latest capital raise of McEwen Mining, closed little over a week ago.

Palladium at almost twice the price of Platinum

By mid October it looked as if Palladium was rallying to twice the price of Platinum, with the price ratio hitting 1.974 at the Comex close on 16 Oct. Less than 2% to go ... Eventually it didn't happen.

New linear regression between the HUI miners index and the Gold Price

Price trends of individual miners are correlated with the gold price. On an aggregated level, a linear regression between the HUI gold miners index and gold may for hold several years. Presently, an emerging linear regression is revealed, fundamentally different from what was observed before.

HUI to Gold Regression: the 2008-10 recovery

What happened to stocks during the 2008 financial crisis needs little explanation. Whereas the broad stock market kept meandering along the lows till March 2009, gold recovered very quickly.
US Government bailouts such as TARP (Troubled Assets Relieve Program) abruptly doubled the money supply. The FED medicine to ease the pain in the broad economy undermined faith in the dollar and raised fear for an escalating inflation.

HUI to Gold regression revisited

During the gold rally which took us from below $280/Oz by end 2001 to $1000 in March 2008, we were repeatedly told that the HUI miners index fluctuated around half of the price of gold (in USD). It was a trading rule which wasn't really questioned in depth and it seemed to hold for several years.

Gold Miner Pulse 2019 (half-year update)

The focus of this blog article is on the gold and silver miners from a tactical point of view: how do PM miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver.

Miners disappointing

Miners continue plunging on any precious metal retreat and follow almost reluctantly while gold and silver are recovering. Expectations have aligned with experience until this infernal dynamic got deeply encrusted in the investor mindset.

Selecting Precious Metal Miners and Explorers

Searching for excellence

Precious metal explorers as investment vehicles have a long standing track record of extreme volatility. As Rick Rule of Sprot Asset Mgt. USA uses to formulate it: “We have known both the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat”.

It is obvious that the success of precious metal explorers goes together with both the exploration talent of a small team of geologists and with their broader management skills. Add just a grain of luck in picking among the promising geological anomalies the successful drilling locations. To end this introduction with another quote of Rick Rule: “Profitable miners ultimately will see their share price reflect increased cash flows from mining operations, but you can’t count on a gold bull market to bail you out of a dumb decision on an explorer investment.”

Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada - PDAC 2019

PDAC is the world’s premier mineral exploration & mining convention. In addition to meeting over 1,000 exhibitors, 3,500 investors and 25,600 attendees from 135 countries, you can also attend technical sessions, short courses and networking events. The four-day annual convention held in Toronto, Canada, has grown in size, stature and influence since it began in 1932 and today is the event of choice for the world’s mineral industry.

Gold Stock Analyst Investor Day

Gold StockAnalyst (GSA) is the market's most respected and successful source of insight and guidance for gold stock investors. The title of GSA's flagship newsletter — GSA Top10 — also sums up its unique investment approach that has an amazing — and verified track — record. Future results cannot be guaranteed, but we promise the GSA Top10 is unlike any stock research you've ever seen.

GSA has been founded by John Doody, an Economics Professor for almost two decades. Doody became interested in gold due to an innate distrust of politicians and concern over their habit of debasing the currency via inflationary economic policies. Other than the Top10 list, John Doody also publishes a full coverage GSA_PRO list covering a universe of about 60 gold miners and developers (near producers). Pure exploration is out of scope. Since 2012, there equally is a Top5 silver miners list (only 5 since there are fewer to choose from).

Credit Suisse Global Investment returns Yearbook 2019

By end February the investment community is eagerly waiting for the publication of the new Global Investments Yearbook. This publication is a continuation of "Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns" (Princeton University Press, 2002) by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton.

Miners will continue to disappoint

Last Friday we witnessed a magnificent miner rally as gold broke above $1300 for the first time since mid June 2018.  However, miners have been disappointing for most of the past 18 months. There is no obvious reason why this dire situation would suddenly improve.