Wednesday, 21 February 2018

Crédit-Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018

The second half of February is the time when the new yearly edition of the Crédit-Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook (CS-GIRY). is released.  The investment community is eagerly looking forward to this publication.

The  2018 version of  this Yearbook is produced by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School, recognized as the leading authorities on the analysis of the long-run performance and trends of stocks, bonds, Treasury bills (cash), inflation and currencies.
With its 118 years of financial history, this annual study remains not only the most comprehensive of sources for the analysis of historic investment returns, but also a lens through which to gain perspective on the here and now. This is of heightened relevance as we begin 2018 with volatility returning to markets and investors re-examining the factors that have driven markets in the post financial crisis world.

Chapters you find in this free abbreviated version (41 pages) of the full yearbook are Long-run asset returns, Risk and risk premiums, Factor investing, Private wealth investments and Individual markets.

Last chapter on individual markets is focusing on the main world economies: the US, China and Japan, leaving any other full description only for the UK and Switzerland. All European economies are furthermore described on an aggregate level.  Other developed economies (Canada, Australia, New Zealand) and emerging economies (South Africa, Brazil...) are left out of this summary edition.  A worldwide summary also is included, which is a suitable benchmark for the other descriptions.

Evolution of the global share of main equity markets over the past 118 years

If the US financial markets now add up to slightly over half of the global market capitalization, it is important noting that this share has both been higher and lower throughout the past. In 1900, the US equity market only was 15% of global market capitalization. Two world wars boosted the US share of global equity markets to about two thirds during the 1950's and 1960's. The economic growth miracle in Japan boosted their stock market in the 1970's and 80's, while the US financial market share slid back to 33%.


The main ideas of the CS-GIRY 2018 can quickly be assessed in a slide presentation. Here, you find the pdf version.

Prior editions

The CS-GIRY 2017 edition can be downloaded here.
The CS-GIRY 2016 edition can be downloaded here.
The CS-GIRY 2015 edition can be downloaded here.
The CS-GIRY 2014 edition can be downloaded here.
The CS-GIRY 2013 edition can be downloaded here.