Saturday, 12 March 2011

Post 2008 lows for miners relative to precious metals

When looking at the relative price level of precious metal miners - as determined by the HUI/Gold ratio, it seems little plausible that gold is in fact barely below its all time high: PM miners look as if their revenues have been falling dramatically. Have investors been dropping their once beloved mining stocks in utter despair?

HUI:Gold (daily observations) - click to enlarge
We haven't fallen back to the bottom of Oct 19 or Jan 25  yet... But back then gold quoted at $1329 and $1324 respectively: a better excuse for miner malperformance.

The ratio is again below its 50 and 200 days moving average. Have we seen the worst and is today's timid rise calling the infernal trend to change?

*** Update: additional data of throughout March 2011: ***


HUI:Gold ratio (daily observations until April 1, 2011. (click to enlarge)
 My doubts were confirmed and the timid recovery of March 11 proved but a whimp: worse was to come. Major miners nosedived relative to gold, despite gold prices holding up strongly. The 0.37 support was tested once more, but with gold at just above $1400, miner weakness was most atypical.
The general market losing ground after the Japan earthquake proved too strong a drag to allow miners keeping up with gold. The 50 dma briefly dropped below the 200 dma, surfacing just over a week later. Technically this last could be seen as a "golden cross", with the 50 dma rising above the 200 dma curve sloping up itself. Any belief is good to end this dismal miner weakness at a strong gold price...
Ending at almost 0.40, the HUI:Gold ratio is again close to the center of its 'post 2008' trading range.

*** end of update ***

The situation for SIL, the silver mining ETF, relative to silver isn't any better at all:

SIL ETF relative to silver, daily observations. We 're far beneath 50 and 200 dma.
The relative value of SIL is quite a lot lower than during the January retreat or the prior low around Oct 19. Most silver miners are left behind in the spectacular silver rally ! The few happy exceptions cannot counter the trend.

Prior postings on this subject:

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